BASIL Survival Prediction Model

The final clinical intention to treat analysis of the BASIL Trial indicated that the relative merits of a bypass first versus a balloon angioplasty first revascularisation strategy changed in favour of surgery at around two years after randomisation.

It therefore seemed important to attempt to use readily available baseline data to build a model that would give clinicians an estimate of how likely individual patients, similar to those randomised in BASIL, were to survive for two years or more and thus enjoy the longer term benefits of surgery.

The manuscript describing the predictive statistical modelling was published as part of the BASIL Trial supplement in the Journal of Vascular Surgery in May 2010 and can be found on the publications page of this website.

Here we make available an Excel spreadsheet containing the Weibull model which can be downloaded for use by clinicians and researchers interested in exploring this aspect of the BASIL Trial output.

We would, of course, be interested in receiving feedback on the usefulness, or otherwise, of this model in other cohorts of BASIL-like patients

Click here to access the BASIL Trial survival prediction model